It looks like gold has stronger support in its wider sideways range. Credit Suisse market strategists are, however, of the opinion that the precious metal will require a break over $1,877 to have a sustained higher position.
XAUUSD price chart. Source TradingView
A Break Beneath $1,780 Could Ease Bias
The support for gold in the converging range remained firm in the past year, but it requires a clearing of $1,854 to introduce the downward trend from the 2021 early break, and over $1,877 to suggest there is a more sustainable movement higher, so the next test of $1.917 can be achieved.
Under $1,780 is required to ease the instant upward bias towards a return to $1.759/54. But having a break under this point is needed to open up the path for a re-test of major price and support for a retracement from the low end of the entire range at $1,691/76.
It is only under $1,691/76 that there would be the main top set up to mark an important change of lower trends.
Are Central Banks Pushing Out Gold?
Throughout the past week, the general hawkish position of central banks across North America and Europe was the headwind that beat down investments in gold. But political conflicts on their part could further aid the strength and perception of the metal as a safe haven for value storage.
Strategists with ANZ Bank are currently expecting the XAU/USD pair to climb up to $1,800 before the end of the first quarter of the year.
The strategists said in a statement that the backdrop for the value of gold is declining as central banks have a more hawkish approach in their policies. Nevertheless, a sharp inflation spread and political factors are playing their parts in offsetting the effect of tightening financial policies.
They went further by saying retail businesses and physical off-takes have shown some resilience. They believe that gold is going to trade at $1,800/oz by the end of the first quarter of 2022.
On another note, financial strategists with TD Securities are expecting that gold will trend on a low on the removal of $1,745 by the second quarter of the year.
They said that the setup is in gold, being ready for another position squeeze as traders turned bearish after the hawkish Federal Reserve policy meeting.
They were later to discover a substantial volume of it on the bid that kept the price of the precious metal from breaking under the bullish market trend line.